will the EU leave Britain?

Mrs T; anc, panda and Nigel Far – oh soz Terry

Mrs T – Norway isn’t such a viable option.

Norway is quite prosperous because of its oil, but it’s become known as a ‘fax democracy’. It has all the advantages of EU membership because it has access to the Single Market through its membership of the EEA (with Iceland, which wants to join the EU), but but but it has no seat at the decision-making table, and Brussels just forces its rules onto the norwegian statute book – about 75% of EU directives are incorporated into Norwegian law. IT’s known as a afax democracy because Brussels rules the country by sending faxes – a democratic deficit plus.

Anc – the City is the big card that the UK can and does play. The German banks in the end tell the Chancellor to calm down the French when it comes to UK membership.

Terry, panda could well be right. You have a limited memory of the EEC referendum of 1975 – for many years Brits told pollsters that they wanted nothing to do with the EEC, – it meant the end of cheap New Zealand butter. But when the campaign took place, the final majority was overwhelmingly for entry. The EU is the world’s single biggest market – better in than out. Brits are quite sensible in the end methinks, though I’m sure UKIP has some mileage to go yet.

To me – more democracy is a necessity, and the UK should be demanding it. The EU is a bureaucratic monstrosity as it stands.

@anc wrote:

Scept – I used to work in the City – you either didn’t know that, but you do now! :) So, in that case, you will know, that I agree with you! :D

Anc,

I read last week in the FT that the City was appalled when Cameron vetoed he EU deal last December in the name of the City.

He didn’t consult them.

They are very much in favour of keeping inside the world’s single biggest market, and are worried that the UK taking a position of half-in half-out is going to lead to us being in the same position as Norway – having to do what we’re told without having any say.

A referendum isn’t inevitable. The eurozone crisis is frightening a lot of people, inside and outside the Eurozone (Norwegians are wanting to leave both the EU and the EEA, which gives them access to the EU, but the Norwegian govt is aware of what will happen at that point).

Cameron is using demands for a referendum to appease the Tory/UKIP people (UKIP olls are threatening Tory marginals) and warn the EU leaders. One of his best arguments to the Tory eurosceptics was to warn them that they may get what they wish for – a referendum – and that a defeat for them in such a vote (which is not at all unlikely) would finally kill them and UKIP together.

We’ve gone too far since 75 to just opt out and choose pie-in-the-eye fantasiies of a Norway/Switzerland arcadia of bankers dancing around maypoles as the alternative.

Better to demand a more democratic EU.