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After the outburst of unthinking and ugly English nationalism which led to brexit, Nicola Sturgeon has set forward a bold challenge to Theresa May, demanding an independence refrendum for Scotland.
I want the Scots to stay, but they have the right to leave. Sturgeon’s move for independence today has set the stage for what is likely to be a major constitutional clash.
If May refuses a referendum until after the spring of 2019, then it will kill the move; Scotland will then be out of the EU, and getting back in will be very difficult. If she grants the referendum earlier, when Scotland is still in the EU, then anything could happen*.
Britain could leave the EU, and stop being Britain; Northern ireland is only held back by fears of a violent Protestant backlash.
My guess is that May will stall. Get ready for action. Not everyone will lay down like Corbyn’s Labour party and let the Tory Right ride all over them.
- all depends on whether Marine la Bonque wins the French presidency this May. It is by no means out of the question, and if she does the EU may be dealt a mortal blow, which would be a tragedy despite its shortcomings.
Delusional
Well, it’s thrown the cat among the pigeons.
And it’s shown a sense of fight.
The huge minority who voted to remain within the EU have been stunned by events, much to the delight of the high-fiving Brexiteers.
That isn’t going to last forever.
One thing I agree with Spread-Sheet Phil (Philip Hammond) – we are in for a roller-coaster of a ride, with violent ups and downs, in the next couple of years.
I’m having an interesting discussion with Orcadian friends, who have another perspective.
Scotland won’t be allowed to join the EU, it’s budget deficit to too high for the EU to gain anything by allowing it in. This was made very clear during the last referendum, and things have only gotten worse in that regard as the EU will not recieve funding from the UK.
Also from what I understand, most of the islands would remain part of the UK, or defect to Norway, which would mean Scotland would lose most of its oil reserves.
Not to mention that Scotland wouldn’t have a currency outside of the Eurozone, and nearly all of Scotlands trade is with England who doesn’t use the Euro anyway.
Scotland would also lose English tax funding though the Barnett formula, which would increase its budget deficit even further.
yes, those were the arguments used in the 2014 referendum.
I have an Orcadian friend who are very hostile to Scotland, though Orkney doesn’t have any oil. Shetland would be more important. Sturgeon is very aware of this, and politics there is going to be very interesting.
This referendum is going to be fought in very different circumstances. It’s going to be fought over whether Scotland is going to be better off within the EU than outside. If the same circumstances hold as in 2014, then Sturgeon will be defeated.
But we are not in 2014, so we’ll have to see what things look like in 2018/19, or even later.
The EU is not as hostile as you say. for example, Spain has always promised to veto the entry of a separatist Scotland because of the consequences for Catalonia. Apart from what may happen there, Spain is now saying it will not veto a Scottish entry. Nothing is written in stone.
As far as tariff barriers are concerned, the situation in 2014 is likely to be very different. The Irish border stands as an example of what could be done with a Scotland which remains in the EU. May dare not apply tariff rules to ireland in exactly the same way as with a post-brexit EU, for fears of sparking a backlash. The recent elections in Northern Ireland, where the DUP suffered badly, is a warning. The DUP is now the only party there which supports brexit, and the EU seems to have figured prominently in its defeat.
So, drac, if you want to freeze time before article 50, what you are saying is absolutely right.
But time is moving on, and the context is going to change quite radically this year. The prospect of Marine La Bonque winning is fascinating as well as a bit scary. I’m sure we can have a thread on this as the elections near; they could be the most important in the EU’s history.
I think that the rest of the UK outside of Scotland should have a referendum on whether we want to keep Scotland in.
And, I think the UK should sell the Orkneys and Shetlands to Norway
That’s what a lot of Tories argue, love. End the EU, end the UK. They want a high-investment, low-wage, low-regulation economy. And by that, I mean safety and health regualtions, the social rights of the EU.
Do you want that too?
End the EU, end the UK
I never said anything of the sort. Au contraire Rodders.
Please don’t put words in mouth!
End the EU, end the UK
I never said anything of the sort. Au contraire Rodders. Please don’t put words in mouth!
oh, sorry.
You surely can undersatnad why i said that.
You want a referendum to end Scotland’s membership of the UK, and call for Scotland to sell Orkney and Shetland to Norway (the last would be strongly supported by my Orcadian friend).
Well, now you can set the record straight, unless you’re hedging your bets.
So in a referendum, you would want and vote to keep Scotland in the UK??
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