-
Posts
-
Serious posts sometimes get an answer in jc. Sometimes they are ignored. Sometimes people wreck them by non-serious replies.
I don’t care. Even if nobody answers, some will read them and think about them.
This country seems to be heading for a serious political crisis – probably around December, when the EU have to decide whether to allow trade talks to begin.
May doesn’t have a majority in parliament for a clear exit – one with either two fingers to the EU or an amiable separation. She is putting off continually a vote on allowing Parliament to have a veto on any deal. She lacks a majority in Cabinet too – she’s putting off continually cabinet decisions on the approach because one side or the other will resign; the Cabinet at the moment could well just blow apart.
She accepts apparently that leaving the EU won’t actually happen in 2019, but could take 3 years or even longer. That’s assuming there is a unanimous decision by the EU 27 parliaments to agree to a deal. All it takes is one country to say no, and we are faced with the stark choice of leave without a deal or stay in. Leaving without a deal would be an economic catastrophe, and parliament would oppose such a move – Corbyn is backed by enough Tories to stop her.
There are too many obstacles in the way. She’s getting very desperate, and is pleading with the EU to help her.Maybe she’ll get through, maybe she’ll pull it off; but as things look at the moment a crisis is due after December. Businesses and banks have warned that it there is not a deal by then, money and jobs will start to leave the UK with increasing speed.
And Corbyn is waiting on the wings. He could well be PM sooner rather than later. Then there’ll be fun – and not all of it pleasant.
Whatever, It’s starting to look as though we will have to have a vote again – either another referendum or another general election. The reason is that there is no majority for any clear route forward, and by starting the withdrawal clock at such an early date, with no preparation of what might happen, we are being forced into a clear route forward.
1 member liked this post.
Sorry scep. I know how much means to you these subjects of State affairs.
I hope that you and those of the UK rally for some one to better serve, and run politically correct in public forums, to bring your economy and needs for the future and welfare for your people…brighter tomorrow.
Xxxx
1 member liked this post.
That’s assuming there is a unanimous decision by the EU 27 parliaments to agree to a deal. All it takes is one country to say no, and we are faced with the stark choice of leave without a deal or stay in.
As far as i’m aware of the EU now uses QMV not absolute majority for most things now. I know that they changed to QMV for trade deals after Belgium vetoed TTIP.
Which is fairly typical of how the EU works, if you don’t get the result you want then you change the rules.
And Corbyn is waiting on the wings. He could well be PM sooner rather than later. Then there’ll be fun – and not all of it pleasant.
Nobody wants Corbyn to be PM, except Momentum.
Drac,
My understanding is that on the issue of one country exiting the EU, all must agree on the terms. Not Ministers but all 27 Parliaments, every one.
The same goes for entry.
My point is that opinion is this country is splintered. There is no majority for a clear way forward.
No majority for a clean break on WTO rules in either parliament, the Cabinet or the country.
No majority for a close association with the EU through membership of the Customs Union or Single market, like Norway.
No majority of a transitional period lasting for more than two years.
No majority for remaining in the EU.
But the demand for a clear route forward is growing under the pressure of the two-year timetable once Article 50 was set going by May in March of this year.
So we must move forward decisively, but the deadlocked parliament and cabinet – and the EU’s 27 member states – make a clear route forward impossible.
We’ve pissed away a year and a half, nearly, since the referendum, with may calling an election and losing her majority to become a weak PM We have about a year to negotiate a complex trade treaty which will take many years to finalise.
We can’t do it.
I agree, drac, that Corbyn is not wanted by the majority, but don’t underestimate him.
He’s the luckiest guy in British politics. When he ran for leader in 2015, he was such an outsider that nobody noticed him until he became unstoppable. After the 2016 referendum, most of his Shadow Cabinet resigned and 80% of his MPs voted no confidence in him, but he was re-elected leader by a bigger majority. IN the 21017 election, most MPs shunned him and the media were confidently forecasting Labour to be getting its worst result ever, but the appalling Tory campaign saw him win seats.
People in this country often become PM by default, not by popular will. He has a good chance of making it. he was applauded to the nines by the European Socialist group when he said that Labour will not accept a no-deal situation, and there seem to be enough Tories ready to support him to make n-deal a non-starter.
We live in very very interesting times.
No majority for a clean break on WTO rules in either parliament, the Cabinet or the country.
That is what will happen if there is no deal. It happens automatically, it doesn’t needa majority.
No majority for a close association with the EU through membership of the Customs Union or Single market, like Norway.
Norway isn’t in the customs union.
I agree, drac, that Corbyn is not wanted by the majority, but don’t underestimate him.
He ran against the worst Conservative campaign, possible the worst campaign ever in British politics, and still lost by a significant proportion of votes.
A campaign that was largely advertised as “Kill foxes and old people”, and he lost.
Nothing “lucky” about Corbyn at all. The working class are sick to the back teeth with the so called “progressive” liberal middle class, who feathered their own nest at the expense of everyone else, leading to Brexit in the first place. 80% of labour heartlands voted Brexit.
Corbyn, despite an unprecedented outpouring of vitriol and hatred by the MSM, both left and right over two years and including within labour ranks, won the largest share of the vote for labour since 1945 and despite labour losing five million voters under Blair. Labour lost the election by just over a million votes, 2.4%. Hardly a “significant proportion” at all and a closer result than the actual EU referendum.
Ironically the “progressives” liberal middle class who relentlessly slated Corbyn, now require him and labour in power to get the best EU Brexit deal possible.
May didn’t run an awful campaign, in the sense that the polls had Corbyn so far behind, the tory hawks assumed a victory and a greater majority would be a walk in the park, they are not taking him lightly now are they and it was fairly obvious to anyone on the left that under election rules of impartiality, Corbyn would narrow the gap and narrow it quickly.
Ge???
I think you will find that on the “SNAP” election that your Zelda lost most of her purse.
Perhaps she can concentrate on running a country and not getting snowGE`s on board to undermine a good run of crap leadership.
BTW I`m a liberal
BTW I`m a liberal
BTW I’m a socialist who voted for Corbyn. Twice in the leadership contest and in the GE…
No majority for a clean break on WTO rules in either parliament, the Cabinet or the country.
That is what will happen if there is no deal. It happens automatically, it doesn’t needa majority.
Well, that’s what the hardline Brexiteers are hoping for.
The problem is that May doesn’t have a majority in parliament to stop an amendemtn to the EU Bill which gives the Commons a veto over a No Deal motion. She’s had to postpone debate because the Whips have told her so. A significant minority of pro-EU Tories (Dominic Grieve, Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry) have issued an amendment about this, and Labour are going to support it. The debate has been postponed to next month, and pro-EU Tories are getting firmer as the scheming of the hardliners and the hysteria of the brexit press about traitors and saboteurs get louder.
If May does manage to win the vote, she is then faced with her promise of a meaningful vote by Parliament. She’s been forced to pull the rug form under David Davis, the hardliner, when he tries to undermine this.
She can’t get a deal which will satisfy the hardliners and the softly-softly factions n a cabinet whihc could blow apart any moment.
Maybe she’ll pull it all off, but it looks very hard to do at this moment of time.
Corbyn would become PM if the Tories handed it to him on a plate, and that’s what they are shaping up to do. That’s how Thatcher became PM – by default, because Labour broke down as a government. That isn’t affected by his performance at the last election, however you may argue it – and in relative terms he did far better than expected. Gerry, if anything, understates Corbyn’s achievement, but Corbyn still comes low in terms of personal ratings for PM. That doesn’t matter. if the government collapses, he is presenting a credible front for a government which will work.
Norway is a member of the European Economic Area, which gives the country full access to the Single Market in return for free movement of capital and labour. I’d be happy with that to be going on with, and come March 2019 that could well be the outcome. There’s no majority for it, though.
There’s no majority – in country, Parliament or Cabinet, for anything else, either, and we are forced to do something because Theresa May foolishly rushed Article 50 to give us two years to get a deal and has been in a flap ever since.
There’s actually very little time left, and at the very least a two year transition is going to be necessary. I believe May is ready to accept much more of a transition period.
-
This reply was modified 7 years ago by
sceptical guy.
May took a gamble and it failed. Similar to Brown in reverse when he bottled holding a snap election in 2007 when he became labour leader and when a win was virtually guaranteed and of course the banking crisis a year later then put paid to both him and labour.
I listened to an interesting debate on LBC, which is a decent station with top notch presenters who support both Remain and Brexit and I tend to agree with the conclusion. A hard Brexit will never happen in a million years, despite project fear, unless the EU continue playing hardball and May is then forced out for someone like Boris who goes on to win a large majority in any subsequent ‘snap’ election. Whether Boris would actually beat Corbyn is an altogether different story.
I have my doubts now that Brexit will happen at all anyway and I think despite the tough guy posturing of the EU, real reform within the EU will happen, as it should. The EU negotiators are not stupid, just as the UK negotiators are not stupid. There are numerous complex political games games being played and the end result is not a foregone conclusion and never was.
-
This reply was modified 7 years ago by Ge.
1 member liked this post.
-
This reply was modified 7 years ago by
Get involved in this discussion! Log in or register now to have your say!