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You are on a game show, the host presents you with 3 closed doors (#1 #2 #3). Behind one of the doors is £1 million pound, behind the other 2 doors is a block of cheese. You have no idea which door conceals what. Whatever door you select you will receive the prize behind it.
You are asked to pick a door, for example you choose door number #3. Before the host opens the door you selected the host opens another door to reveal what is behind it, the host knows what is behind each door and will always open a door which has a block of cheese behind it. The host opens door #2 and reveals a block of cheese.
You are now asked if you would like to swap your chosen door for the other unopened door (door #1).
The question is, should you swap and take the other door (door #1), or should you stick with your original choice, door #3? Or does it make no difference what you choose to do?
What will give you the best chance of winning the £1 million pound?
Most people will say that it makes absolutely no difference whether you decide to swap or not, behind one closed door is £1 million pounds, and behind the other is a block of cheese, so therefore it makes absolutely no difference as it’s 50/50, this sounds perfectly reasonable right. Wrong…
The answer is you should always swap, you will then have twice the chance of winning the £1 million pound. Why?
Now let’s take a look at the different scenarios:
Not Swapping
At the start of the game you are asked to choose one of three doors, the chances of you selecting the one with the £1 million pound is roughly 1 in 3, so you have a 33% chance, and because there is 2 other doors each with a block of cheese you have a 2 in 3 chance, a 66% chance of choosing one of them.
Now because you are not swapping, it does not matter what door the host opened and reveals a block of cheese. Everything remains the same, you have a 33% chance of winning, a 66% chance of losing.
Swapping
Now let’s say you pick a door and it has a block of cheese behind it, this is the favourite as you have a 66% chance of doing this. The host will now open another door to reveal a block of cheese, this is the only other door remaining with a block of cheese behind it. If you now swap to the other door you will be guaranteed to win the £1 million pound.
So every time you pick a door with a block of cheese behind it at the start (66% chance), you will be guaranteed to win the prize by always swapping.
The only scenario you will lose is when you pick the door with the prize first time and then swap. However it’s still the correct procedure to swap, as if you play this game 99 times, by following that strategy you win the £1 million pounds 66 times out of 99.
So if you find yourself on a game show with this scenario (deal or no deal), you know what the correct play is.
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You have a choice of 3 oranges…..peel or no peel? LOl
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PML
Always peel 
You have a choice of 3 oranges…..peel or no peel? LOl
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hmm seeems like a gamble to me i wud try and get best prize.
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I liked Deal or no Deal in the early years…..it got really irritating after that.
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Same Q, used to quite enjoy it then went totally of it. I think it has been cancelled now, not seen it on any listings for quite a while. It ran its course.
I liked Deal or no Deal in the early years…..it got really irritating after that.
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It is a gamble lol but you will win double the times following one strategy, so it’s the correct gamble
hmm seeems like a gamble to me i wud try and get best prize.
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Misterq,
They called our game on t.v.
“Let’s make a Deal,” Bob Barker.
Honestly, would be happy to win any prize for free.
Sorry, King, I will accept my prize. xxxxx. Sit down,
Next……….. (hee do not want to pay free game prize tax!”
Yes King..Deal was cancelled. I think it was a bit too clever for it’s own good. They even got Joan Collins on the show who won about 20 000 just to show that even rich celebs can’t win big…it’s all natural. It was all luck with Joan Collins but she had the sense not to gamble…..that’s the thing with gambling and i think Deal or No Deal brought it out that gambling is a state of mind. It’s interesting in most cases that when even a rich celebrity goes on a game show or quiz show , they talk about the fact that they can’t lose money for charity. I some times wonder if they care about the charity or just the backlash they will get if they lost the charity money?
You get the same thing on celebrity…Who wants to be a millionaire. No coughing in the audience please! LOL
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Lol, that was amazing, I found the documentary about Charles Ingram fascinating. I never saw any celebs on deal or no deal, I missed those ones. I know what you mean though, have you ever saw the celebs when they are doing a show for charity but they really want to continue on, sometimes they say if they lose they will give the money anyway. It can only be a good thing though for the TV company as it brings in viewers, and it also brings awareness to the charities they are playing for as they get a name check.
You get the same thing on celebrity…Who wants to be a millionaire. No coughing in the audience please! LOL
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