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Nobody actually knows whether this deal will pass the Commons, though the portents don’t seem good at the moment.
However, our leaving the EU is showing how weak we are when cast adrift from one of the world’s top trading blocs. They seem to have come out top against us in the negotiations, which isn’t surprising as they are more powerful than we are. We are NOT equal negotiating partners.
It’s a lose-lose situation, though. Britain’s exit from the EU – in 4 months, or is it three years, or is it at some point in this century – will leave a “deep wound” in Europe, as Angela Merkel has put it, while we are very likely to emerge poorer as well as weaker.
So how far have the EU and the UK achieved their original goals?
As far as the EU is concerned
First, just the fact of Brexit is a serious defeat. No country has ever left the trading bloc before, even though there have been stresses and strains throughout its history since 1958.
Secondly, the EU is threatened by Brexit. Right-wing nationalist movements and anti-establishment movements have been rising since the financial crisis undermined the belief that the people in charge are competent and not self-interested, while tensions between the US and Europe have increased the stresses. There is a danger that the EU may not survive, though this shouldn’t be over-estimated.
Thirdly, EU leaders resolved after the UK’s June 2016 referendum that Britain could not enjoy an equal relationship to the one it had held before. The draft deal’s sections on transitional membership, on fishing and on the position of Northern Ireland point to a comprehensive victory for the EU. That’s why the brexiteers and the hard-line DUP are hopping mad.
Fourthly, the EU insisted that the UK shouldn’t have its cake and eat it. That is, it shouldn’t obtain the privileged access to parts of the EU customs union and the single market it liked, while rejecting the parts it didn’t like. The EU appears to have emerged victorious on this, too.
As far as the UK is concerned:
First, we haven’t managed to develop any clear vision of what brexit should look like. The cabinet, the Conservatives, parliament are in deep disagreement about this, and the disagreements reflect the differences within British society. The one thing which united the brexiteers was the need to take back control. We are not in control under this deal. We will remain aligned to the EU in core areas and will have no say over the bloc’s rules – we will be rule-takers. It’s going to be like being in the EU, but without any say, and this will continue over an unspecified number of years.
Secondly, the constitutional unity of the country has been jeopardised, with Scotland feeling unfairly treated (fishing is a particular issue here) while the possibility of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland has been increased either way you look at it. Britain is emerging as an internally threatened country.
Thirdly, the British economy has slowed down a lot, and is now threatened by problems in financing its health, welfare and education which are likely to get worse. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leading Brexiteer, said that it could be up to 50 years before we feel the benefits of leaving, but our people have to feed themselves, live on universal credit, educate ourselves, and heal ourselves in the meantime. We were told that wed be in the money once we left; we didn’t vote to become poorer, and the £39 million compensation payment is going to drub it in.
This deal may well fall apart, and there is even the chance of a new people’s Vote if it does, though the odds are against this – it’s unlikely, for the moment.
Time to reflect on what we are doing?
I’m sure that everybody is dying to read the deal –
here it is –
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf
all 585 pages of it
Happy reading
If you were as altruistic as you claim, interested for young people you’d concern yourself with the three main areas that affect them which are housing, crime and jobs all of which are adversely affected by the EU and uncontrolled immigration. Englands the most populated country in Europe now behind Malta having recently overtaken Holland meaning house prices are pushed up, services are overstretched and wages are pushed down with many immigrants working for and below the minimum wage often sending money home when coming from Eastern Europe. These three areas are far more important than the left/right wing rhetoric you regurgitate on here daily like a sick parrot yet no mention of them anywhere.. just drawings of Trump and right wing attacks again.
This deal may well fall apart, and there is even the chance of a new people’s Vote if it does, though the odds are against this – it’s unlikely, for the moment. Time to reflect on what we are doing?
There was already a vote.
You lost.
If you were as altruistic as you claim, interested for young people you’d concern yourself with the three main areas that affect them which are housing, crime and jobs all of which are adversely affected by the EU and uncontrolled immigration. Englands the most populated country in Europe now behind Malta having recently overtaken Holland meaning house prices are pushed up, services are overstretched and wages are pushed down with many immigrants working for and below the minimum wage often sending money home when coming from Eastern Europe. These three areas are far more important than the left/right wing rhetoric you regurgitate on here daily like a sick parrot yet no mention of them anywhere.. just drawings of Trump and right wing attacks again.
You must have your head so wrapped in anti-Islam propaganda that you can’t see what’s happening.
You spend all your time telling everybody how intelligent you are, but this is one of the more dense responses to what’s going on that I’ve seen.
Look at the news, man!!
The government is falling apart and we may be on the eve of the biggest constitutional crisis since the Lords Reform crisis of 1910. We are in the midst of a very serious withdrawal from a trading arrangement which has affected and is going to affect the economy on which housing and jobs (and welfare, and health ) etc, as well as the UK’s strength in the world, and you claim that the first post isn’t important?
This deal may well fall apart, and there is even the chance of a new people’s Vote if it does, though the odds are against this – it’s unlikely, for the moment. Time to reflect on what we are doing?
There was already a vote.
You lost.
And things have turned out rather oddly, haven’t they, drac??
We had another vote a year later, in 2017, and the government effectively lost.
The government is now in severe danger of falling apart. Today they were a minority government. minsters are resigning, the DUP has withdrawn its support, and so has Rees-Mogg, the Minster for the 18th Century.
If the Dancing Queen loses that vote next month, then everything, and I mean everything, is up in the air. Nothing is ruled out.
If you were as altruistic as you claim, interested for young people you’d concern yourself with the three main areas that affect them which are housing, crime and jobs all of which are adversely affected by the EU and uncontrolled immigration. Englands the most populated country in Europe now behind Malta having recently overtaken Holland meaning house prices are pushed up, services are overstretched and wages are pushed down with many immigrants working for and below the minimum wage often sending money home when coming from Eastern Europe. These three areas are far more important than the left/right wing rhetoric you regurgitate on here daily like a sick parrot yet no mention of them anywhere.. just drawings of Trump and right wing attacks again.
You must have your head so wrapped in anti-Islam propaganda that you can’t see what’s happening.
You spend all your time telling everybody how intelligent you are, but this is one of the more dense responses to what’s going on that I’ve seen.
Look at the news, man!!
The government is falling apart and we may be on the eve of the biggest constitutional crisis since the Lords Reform crisis of 1910. We are in the midst of a very serious withdrawal from a trading arrangement which has affected and is going to affect the economy on which housing and jobs (and welfare, and health ) etc, as well as the UK’s strength in the world, and you claim that the first post isn’t important?
I haven’t a clue what you are babbling on about- if you use news as evidence of your facts ( probably BBC in your case) you’re even thicker than I thought. Perhaps instead of hiding behind clichés you can explain how leaving the EU will harm housing , jobs for natives and crime figures instead of just generic statements on “trading arrangements ” ?
This deal may well fall apart, and there is even the chance of a new people’s Vote if it does, though the odds are against this – it’s unlikely, for the moment. Time to reflect on what we are doing?
There was already a vote.
You lost.
And things have turned out rather oddly, haven’t they, drac??
We had another vote a year later, in 2017, and the government effectively lost.
The government is now in severe danger of falling apart. Today they were a minority government. minsters are resigning, the DUP has withdrawn its support, and so has Rees-Mogg, the Minster for the 18th Century.
If the Dancing Queen loses that vote next month, then everything, and I mean everything, is up in the air. Nothing is ruled out.
What the hell are you on, whatever drugs you’re on lower the dosage – how did the government “lose” in 2017 with another vote? I suppose EU Britain today is working well in your eyes- knife crime epidemic, food banks , waiting lists for doctors going into months and years waiting for housing.
2 members liked this post.
Sceptical we pay far more into the EU budget than we get back, actually it was a net contribution of around £8.5 billion last year (£23 million a day), which is more than we spend on the police service or border controls.
The NHS costs £8.5 billion a month and the Health Service would get an extra £5 billion a year as a result of Brexit. People crying about the NHS relying on foreign immigrants are too thick to realise many people in the Uk can’t get these jobs due to the numbers applying.
60 per cent of regulations originate from the EU and the 28-member Commission in Brussels — none of whom were elected. There’s currently no upper limit on migration and no proper control of our borders. More than three million EU migrants live in the UK — double the number in 2004 when the EU expanded to include Eastern European countries, who have sent more than a million people here (despite the last Labour Government saying it would be only 13,000 a year.)The net migration from EU countries to the UK, according to official figures, is over 200,000 a year — enough to fill a city the size of Oxford. We have never hit targets to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands — and most agree we never will if we remain inside the EU but according to you scep it’s not a broken flawed body.
Under EU law, we must let in any EU citizen regardless of their qualifications subsequently meaning businesses can’t get work permits for highly skilled or educated people from the Commonwealth, U.S., Australia and elsewhere outside the EU.Parliament is powerless, under EU treaties, to defend itself against the rulings of the European Court of Justice — which has interfered in everything from the price of beer to the right to deport terror suspects. The UK has lost three-quarters of the cases it’s challenged since 1973 which makes a mockery of the idea that the UK’s Supreme Court is supreme as Sceptical no doubt thinks.
UK law stops anyone from outside the EU entering Britain if their presence is deemed ‘not conducive to the public good’, but Brussels says EU citizens can only be turned away if there is a ‘serious, credible and present threat’.The list of criminals able to come here includes a Latvian who murdered his wife before moving to the UK, where he killed a 14-year-old girl and over the past decade, UK officials have only been able to turn away 11,000 EU nationals.
Thanks to Brussels busybodies ( maybe sceptical himself who knows), some of the EU’s most evil killers, rapists and drug-dealers have been allowed to remain here because their right to free movement has been put ahead of keeping the British public safe. A report by the Labour-led Commons Home Affairs Committee said the number of foreign criminals who had not been deported could fill a ‘small town’. British jails hold almost 10,000 foreign prisoners — including 1,000 Poles.
Why don’t you actually tackle points raised sceptical instead of rehashing pathetic pictures of Trump , right wing claptrap and frivolous arguments full of hot air based on conjecture/ supposition instead of dealing with actual statistics?
Just to clarify… My ‘ Like ‘ of the above post is for ‘some’ points and facts given on the EU that I happen to agree with, that’s all.
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