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I’ve done a bit of reading about how the polls work … mainly because I meet A LOT of people and I don’t know anyone who has been asked their opinion by a pollster. So, a lot of the poll results that get churned out are online polls with incentives built in to take part. The vast majority of people who do online polls fall into, for the main part, 2 categories , retired people and under 24’s, read into it what you will, my thinking is the younguns are on I pads, laptops, phones, most of the day, retired people have more time , so the young want to remain so they can pull on a back pack and slum round Europe for a year with less hassle lol. Haha but can’t be arsed to get off their social media platform and walk to a polling station, not all under 24s obviously.
The vast majority of polls are done by companies who do / sell computer analytics based on marketing , how can data about who buys what from what shop tell them how people will vote ??? So if the data shows you buy salmon and avocado a lot your placed in the remain slot ?!! There’s hardly anyone actually asking mr or mrs 45, at work all day what they think , in person face to face, no exit polls obviously. Allister Campbell did a phone in radio interview and every single caller told him he talked non sense and made valid points he could not answer, to the point where the host asked for remain voters to call in ! Don’t know if they did as I had to leave it there. Is this why the polls consistently get it wrong ?
I obviously realise there’s more involved than who buys white bread from Aldi or a granary loaf from the local bakers, I know it involves immense amounts of data, algarythms , logarithms , salsa rhythms … but the bottom line is it is all based on what you spend your dosh on and where buy it from. 😳🤪🙄😟
I’ve done a bit of reading about how the polls work … mainly because I meet A LOT of people and I don’t know anyone who has been asked their opinion by a pollster. So, a lot of the poll results that get churned out are online polls with incentives built in to take part. The vast majority of people who do online polls fall into, for the main part, 2 categories , retired people and under 24’s, read into it what you will, my thinking is the younguns are on I pads, laptops, phones, most of the day, retired people have more time , so the young want to remain so they can pull on a back pack and slum round Europe for a year with less hassle lol. Haha but can’t be arsed to get off their social media platform and walk to a polling station, not all under 24s obviously.
The vast majority of polls are done by companies who do / sell computer analytics based on marketing , how can data about who buys what from what shop tell them how people will vote ??? So if the data shows you buy salmon and avocado a lot your placed in the remain slot ?!! There’s hardly anyone actually asking mr or mrs 45, at work all day what they think , in person face to face, no exit polls obviously. Allister Campbell did a phone in radio interview and every single caller told him he talked non sense and made valid points he could not answer, to the point where the host asked for remain voters to call in ! Don’t know if they did as I had to leave it there. Is this why the polls consistently get it wrong ?
Polls don’t even do a good job at capturing the oppinions of young people though.
If they did, then the polls showing a landslide remain victory would have been true.
Polls don’t even do a good job at capturing the oppinions of young people though.
If they did, then the polls showing a landslide remain victory would have been true.
Actually, I’ve known pollsters, and they attempt a scientific method of polling. That’s why there’s always a warning of a percentage divergence.
They don’t interview you or the woman sitting drinking coffee next to you. That wouldn’t be scientific. They conduct samples based on social data, and they have always tended to be accurate.
Until recently, when the polls have been well wide of the mark for all but one of them, much to their dismay. The exception was John Curtice, the professor at St Andrews, and his polls of opinion in elections are unusually accurate. For several election nights now, it’s been amusing to watch the different politicians just expressing disbelief at his exit polling, only to find themselves with egg on their faces. Nick Clegg even said he would eat his hat on election night in 2015 if Curtice were right, and was presented with a hat when he next appeared.
The polling of young people was given by Curtice a while ago on the tv. It showed 7 to 1 young people. That would be intuitively correct – the remain vote tended to be young, while older people voted leave. The young are anxious for their jobs, and quite liked the opening of opportunities given by the EU’s freedom of movement policies, along with the EU funding for scientific research and education.
maybe he was wrong this time. Would you eat your hat, drac, if he wasn’t wrong??
Turnout for the referendum was an impressive 72.2%. More people voted in areas less likely to vote in general elections than predicted and less voted than predicted in areas more likely to vote. Pollsters got this wrong because they assumed turn out would reflect general elections.
My understanding now (briefly yes more complex) is that online polls were far more accurate than telephone polls but that only one or two online pollsters correctly predicted the end result. What online polls did get right was that ‘unknowns’ would vote Brexit.
Education background played an important part in the referendum but this was not taken into account accurately by phone pollsters. Phone polls obviously asked to many university educated participants who predominantly backed Remain and this skewed the findings which hovered around 45% Brexit 55% Remain. (yes it is more complex)
Far more labour supporters voted Brexit than predicted and both labour and the liberal left seriously underestimated voter disatisfaction in traditional working class heartlands.
Ultimately pollsters screwed up because their final estimates were weighted in favour that a high turn out and including ‘don’t knows’ would end in a Remain vote.
Edit. Old voted Brexit young voted Remain is an innacruate dichotomy. University educated were more likely to vote Remain, far more young people attend university than 40 years ago. The vote was divided by socioeconomic group, not age.
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This reply was modified 6 years ago by
Ge.
I don’t agree with your collapse of age into socio-economic group. A lot of social factors came into play.
But, to me, I don’t think it’s important enough at this point to go into a discussion of it. There’s only so much that can be discussed.
The point of the last few posts is that polls have not been accurate, and this has been used to pour scorn on the idea that the new cohort of youngsters are 7 to 1 in favour of remain.
I was pointing out that the pollsters are working overtime to refine their samples, and john Curtice is the major exception – he even got knighted for his pains!
Curtice gave the most prescient analysis of the polling situation now, which is that the votes are swinging to remain, but that the shift isn’t significant or large enough to merit a new referendum.
Do you disagree with that??
The time for a new referendum may well arise at some point, but when there’s a strong enough demand for it. If Brexit proves the success predicted in the campaign – all of us in the money, the NHS saved, a prosperous Britain freed from the shackles of all those pesky EU rules on health and labour welfare etc – then there’s no need to be worried, is there?
Is there??
Edit. Old voted Brexit young voted Remain is an innacruate dichotomy. University educated were more likely to vote Remain, far more young people attend university than 40 years ago. The vote was divided by socioeconomic group, not age.
I’m 26, have a PhD, and was born in France.
I voted to leave.
Apparently I don’t exist.
Tarrant is right though isn’t he. A simple google demonstrates fat cats creaming off the EU to the tune of billions. I could give loads of examples farming subsidies etc but here is one for starters.
Actually, I’m getting quite sick of chasing these links up.
You gave a series of links on economic statistics a while ago which I patiently read, using up time I can’t get back, to find that they were lazy googling on your part which disproved your own case.
Now, you googled Euro fat cats, and you came up with this.
Read it again! Read it more carefully, please. You’ll find it’s a strong argument for EU-wide action. You’ll also find that the Euro fatcats who are creaming off the billions are defined quite carefully – they are not the ‘Eurocrats’ but the same fatcats who cream the the UK and every other country for billions, adapting themselves to the rules of whichever environment they find themselves in.
Read your own links next time.
L
Curtice gave the most prescient analysis of the polling situation now, which is that the votes are swinging to remain, but that the shift isn’t significant or large enough to merit a new referendum.
I have mentioned his referendum poll previously, yes. Curtice is reflecting what young people now say. Young people did not vote when they had the chance in the referendum.
The young are anxious for their jobs, and quite liked the opening of opportunities given by the EU’s freedom of movement policies
British young people do NOT work in the EU zone in large numbers. Young people from the EU zone do work in the UK in large numbers because unemployment in that bracket remains stubbornly high in parts of the EU.
Immigration played a large part in Brexit and was one of the mojor factors. The political class have acknowledged this, some Remain supporters ‘remain’ stubbornly resistant to it and out of touch.
Edit. Old voted Brexit young voted Remain is an innacruate dichotomy. University educated were more likely to vote Remain, far more young people attend university than 40 years ago. The vote was divided by socioeconomic group, not age.
I’m 26, have a PhD, and was born in France.
I voted to leave.
Apparently I don’t exist.
which is precisely why the polling has to be sophisticated, and why the variations of the social groups need to be accounted.
Believe it or not, you exist in the sampling, or the sampling isn’t good enough. most pollster have got the results wrong because the sampling isn’t good enough.
Curtice’s sampling is more sophisticated – I believe.
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This reply was modified 6 years ago by
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