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I’m surprised at the snap election; my guess is that Brexit’s bad economic news and a cut in living standards are very likely in the next couple of years, and she wants a majority now while the going’s good.
She needs Labour’s support for the election to happen, but I can’t imagine that not being given. They should refuse – I can think of good arguments not to let it through – but turkeys voting for Christmas? Labour is in a mess, but they still have a lot of safe seats. Hard to see them not losing quite a few seats.
UKIP is also in a mess. It doesn’t know where it’s going. If you want a hard Brexit, you vote Tory if you’ve got half a brain.
LibDems may do well – this election is a godsend for them.
Maybe the Tory majority won’t be as big as she wants?
More likely May saw the Opinium poll or whatever it was this morning showing Corbyn with only 14% wanting him to be PM versus Mays 47% and only 45% of labour voters wanting him as PM. ok Maybe not but they aren’t daft, it’s a risk but I think its a tactical move and am pleased!
Certainly looks good if you’re a Tory.
Obviously a tactical move, and things look good for her at the moment.
She has a majority until 2020, though, so calling an election on opinion polls which aren’t exactly reliable has a lot to do with uncertainly about what the lie of the land will look like in 2020. Things could look quite dicey then, with the Uk having formally left the EU and the distinct possibility of people facing real economic problems for themselves as well as the country.
This makes sense in grabbing the moment to make sure that another election is held as far away from the UK leaving the EU as possible.
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omg another dam vote thing. what the hell is it this time? just tell me who will make cat food cheaper for mr jingles and ill vote for them. im sick of all these dumb voting things.
She needs Labour’s support for the election to happen, but I can’t imagine that not being given. They should refuse – I can think of good arguments not to let it through – but turkeys voting for Christmas? Labour is in a mess, but they still have a lot of safe seats. Hard to see them not losing quite a few seats.
The oposition refusing a general election would be an open admission that their party is a failure and has no chance of winning. This is of course true, but neither Corbyn or his party can take this stance if they want the Labour party to continue to exist.
UKIP is also in a mess. It doesn’t know where it’s going. If you want a hard Brexit, you vote Tory if you’ve got half a brain.
UKIP’s core voter base doesn’t trust May at all, the phase they use is ‘closet remainer’ I believe. They won’t vote for her party. They also have other flagship policies that seperate them from the Tories, removing tution fees for STEM courses at university, and voter reform are two of the main ones. Farage has gone as far as saying the house of lords should be replaced with a senate, but I don’t think this will be part of their campaign manifesto for this election.
LibDems may do well – this election is a godsend for them.
The Lib Dems will gain some support from hard line remainers, but their pushing for a second referendum as alienated at lost of people who feel they are not respecting democracy. I’m not sure if they will gain or lose votes overall.
Maybe the Tory majority won’t be as big as she wants?
It will be larger than it is now, and the pound has gone up in value since the election was announced which is something that the Tories want.
Much more likely, after May’s statement that she would NOT call for an early election following Brexit, is that someone in high places has tipped off May that there may well be criminal charges against some tory MPs regarding the 30 cases of alleged electoral fraud currently being investigated and due to be announced, but no doubt suspended now, until after the election. The likes of Grant Shapps, who was Conservative Party Chairman during the election campaign, is as dodgy as they come and it would not surprise me if he was charged as well. That tory wafer thin majority would be incredibly vulnerable if enough MPs are charged and the fall out would have probably cost the tories the election in 2020 anyway.
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This reply was modified 7 years, 10 months ago by
Ge.
UKIP is also in a mess. It doesn’t know where it’s going. If you want a hard Brexit, you vote Tory if you’ve got half a brain.
UKIP’s core voter base doesn’t trust May at all, the phase they use is ‘closet remainer’ I believe. They won’t vote for her party. They also have other flagship policies that seperate them from the Tories, removing tution fees for STEM courses at university, and voter reform are two of the main ones. Farage has gone as far as saying the house of lords should be replaced with a senate, but I don’t think this will be part of their campaign manifesto for this election.
The hard-core UKIP voter – how many of them now? UKIP must be hoping to pick up Labour voters who can stick Corbyn, but the Copeland result showed that they’re as likely to go to the Tories. The UKIP threat to the Tories whihc triggered the referendum has all but gone; I don’t see a UKIP threat to Tory seats. The result will tell, but I don’t see other UKIP policies as attracting many people.
The LibDems threaten the Tories more than Labour – their result will be very interesting. They had only 8 seats after the last election because of Clegg’s disastrous policy of coalition with Cameron. Remainers will be voting for them – not me, my Labour MP is a strong Remainer.
Daily fluctuations in the £ are neither here nor there. It’s long-term movements which affect us.
The hard-core UKIP voter – how many of them now? UKIP must be hoping to pick up Labour voters who can stick Corbyn, but the Copeland result showed that they’re as likely to go to the Tories. The UKIP threat to the Tories whihc triggered the referendum has all but gone; I don’t see a UKIP threat to Tory seats. The result will tell, but I don’t see other UKIP policies as attracting many people.
In the 2015 election UKIP recieved 10,801 more votes than the combined total of the SNP and Lib Dems.
(UKIP had 3,881,099 votes, Lib Dems had 2,415,862 and SNP had got 1,454,436)
Daily fluctuations in the £ are neither here nor there. It’s long-term movements which affect us.
It’s still trading at 1.28 to the US dollar, seems like it will stay there for awhile.
A very balanced, rational and well expressed objective piece Skeptic ☺
– and yes the voting system needs much reform Draculina – are you aware of the Electoral Reform Society?
peace Comrade
The hard-core UKIP voter – how many of them now? UKIP must be hoping to pick up Labour voters who can stick Corbyn, but the Copeland result showed that they’re as likely to go to the Tories. The UKIP threat to the Tories whihc triggered the referendum has all but gone; I don’t see a UKIP threat to Tory seats. The result will tell, but I don’t see other UKIP policies as attracting many people.
In the 2015 election UKIP recieved 10,801 more votes than the combined total of the SNP and Lib Dems. (UKIP had 3,881,099 votes, Lib Dems had 2,415,862 and SNP had got 1,454,436)
Drac, referring back to 20215 is very misleading. We’ve had a referendum since then, in whihc the Tory Right wing and UKIP campainged victoriously. The UKIP has lost its distinct appeal. It#’s lost a lost of support since the referendum. It’s imploded, and has lost its only MP, apart fomr losing a number of key leaders to the Tories. Time to stop dwelling on past glories.
Daily fluctuations in the £ are neither here nor there. It’s long-term movements which affect us.
It’s still trading at 1.28 to the US dollar, seems like it will stay there for awhile.
My understanding is that the pound has risen for the same reason that EU negotiators are feeling relieved. They believe that may will negotiate a ‘soft’ brexit. They may be wrong, but that’s their belief.
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This reply was modified 7 years, 10 months ago by
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