Theresa May's First Significant Defeat on the EU

Drac, you didn’t understand my point, and you certainly don’t understand the Brit constitution (join the club of many).

My point is that may has suffered her first defeat. So far, she has sailed through to victory after victory. The fact that the bill was passed without amendments was a goo9d victory. That’s where your point ends. I would say that Corbyn’s failure to put up an effective fight against the Bill by voting against it as a whole was an even more significant victory; it enabled her to be the spokesperson of a nation, rather than a faction.

But the Sturgeon move is a defeat. It occurred after the victories you described.

The second point concerns the British constitution.

The Royal Prerogative is an intervention in the right of parliament to decide legislation. may’s attempt to use it was rightly declared illegal.

Sturgeon has no power to effect a referendum, but she’s announcing an intention. It is all but certain that the Scottish parliament will pass a request that the British government holds a referendum on independence at a time of that parliament’s own choosing.

Constitutionally, May has the right to refuse, but politically she’s caught in a bind. A refusal is likely to fan the flames of Scottish nationalism, and could lead to some profound political movements against her in Scotland at a delicate time. That’s why she’s all but certain to agree to a referendum. That’s the way p9olitics works within our constitution.

The main conflict is over timing. Constitutionally, it’s the right of the British government to declare the time, but in 2014 Cameron agreed to the Scots demand that they decide the time of the referendum. The Scots are again going to isist that the precedent be followed.

may doesn’t want that. She wants a referendum to be held at a time which suits her, but that is likely again to arouse Scottish resentment and increase the chances of a vote for independence, which would be a real disaster for May

So she’s caught in a bind. Nothing unconstitutional is taking place. It’s now politics.

Whatever decision she makes, her negotiations with the EU are going to be conducted against a background of an extremely vigorous campaign for independence. She’s now engaged in a war on two fronts, during a period when the economy could well be on a roller-coaster (as Spread-Sheet Philip Hammond admits)

Note the ability of Theresa may and Philip Hammond to collapse at the first real pressure – over NI increases for the self-employed – and the political scene starts to take a fascinating shape.

Well, May hasn’t refused a referendum, but refused a referendum in the EU negotiating timetable. She stalled, which is I said and what was expected. The interesting thing is what the Nats make of it. They ain’t going to be lying down.

Their campaign is what’s going to make May look behind her shoulder while she’s bargaining.

You can’t claim Scotland doesn’t count, or even that Scotland has a smaller economy. The Scottish and English economies, even their population, is intertwined, and that is why negotiating a separation will be so difficult (think of the defence industries alone).

Drac, the Spectator is a right-wing magazine, as the New Statesman is a left-wing magazine. papers always carry a mix of articles by left- and right-wing commentators to maintain their readers’ interest. The Daily Express used to carry regular articles by Trotsky in the thirties. That doesn’t make the Express a Trotskyist newspaper. It’s the editorial control and comment which makes a paper left or right-wing, and the Spectator is right-wing (Boris Johnson was one of its editors a few years ago).

They’re not alone in recognising May’s weakness, though it’s not fatal yet. The only ones who seem to have let it go are the Corbyn leadership.

Could you give me a link about Commonwealth, especially Canadian, trade negotiators. I’ve not heard of this, and it sounds interesting.

I would be so sure of who is the weaker team. If a trade deal proves impossible (and that will be political, not economic), the EU will be hurt badly, but pulling out without a trade deal would almost certainly be catastrophic for the UK economy. David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, has admitted that there is no analysis, though they realise there will be a 30% leap in dairy etc.export tariffs, the UK will not be part of the US-EU Open Skies deal etc.

That’s the big problem exposed by May and Hammond. No adequate preparation, opponents exploiting weakness, collapse. Let’s hope that isn’t repeated in the Brexit negotiations, for all our sakes. We should be aiming for a good deal, whihc means a soft brexit, not a deal which throws all the goodies out of the pram.

Drac, I have nothing but sympathy for your sight problems. I have them too, but nothing like yours.  Don’t worry, if I am arch in my responses, just explain, and I’ll try to take all this into account. You have my typos to contend with, remember.

Thanks for the links.

Canada is being asked for advice, not trade negotiators. They’ll need them for the problems caused by Chump over NAFTA and any Pacific deals they may need. UK certainly needs trade negotiators – many of them.

Advice will certainly be given.

It’s delusional to talk about ejecting Scotland. It’s not going to happen, so any consequences are just war games. Some people like war games; not me.

The lates political manoeuvering with the SNP reinforces the difficulty of striking a favourable deal with the EU. This is highly unlikely within 2 years anyway; My guess is that the UK will nominally leave the EU in 2019 while retaining a large number of rules and payments to be worked out over the following 5-10 years. In addition, Scottish independence is now thrown into the negotiations, and May is going to fight on twpo fronts, with one eye on the Scots.

The likely result is that we will all lose about 10% of our incomes – savings, wages etc, health and education spending – by 2020 according to forecasts. Forecasts over that length of time are never correct, though – it could be less, or more. We could also find ourselves a truncated country. The EU negotiators have every incentive to stir the Scottish pot, knowing that May and most of us in England are unionists when it comes to Scotland. Happy hunting grounds for the Nats.